Daily Ag Direction 4/19/24

Markets this morning are digesting the Israel - Iran headlines as Israel's ovenight strike jolted wheat and crude higher but Iran's lack of escalation quickly pulled futures off their highs. Overall the grains are modestly higher early in this morning's session with a oversold theme prevailing as the nearby march bean contract bounced off lows again yesterday.

Wheat bulls have a little fundamental fodder with dry forecasts persisting across the plains in NOAA's long term forecasts, dry near term forecasts for Russia / Ukraine, and Turkey's wheat crop seeing stress over 60% of the region. Indian government data shows their stocks at 16 year lows after the government liquidated their reserves to offset low production the last few years.  The KC HRW contract still having a hard time holding on to last night's gains amid the overall bleak demand picture.

Corn and beans remain in "sideways to lower" mode with lower price action a little more overt on the bean side. US weather forecasts are not generating any risk premiums leaving the path of least resistance for the spec funds to the downside. Farther out, the trade is watching a projected transition from El Nino to La Nina on a timeline yet to be determined, with potential late season yield implications for the row crops. 

Right now we have:

KC wheat either side of even with nearby May down .25 at 5.76 and July up .25 at 5.75

Chicago wheat leading the way with May and July contracts up 7 at 5.44 and 5.60 respectively

May corn up 2.75 at 4.295

Dec corn up 2 at 4.62

May beans up 4 at 11.38

Nov beans up 4.25 at 11.535

Feeder Cattle slightly higher on the open with May up .40 at 292.95 and Aug up .325 at 254.625

Don't hesistate to give your CEA Risk Management Advisor a call with any questions and have a great day!

Posted on Apr 19 at 09:20